EVALUATION OF SOCIAL-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON THE DIFFUSION OF GENETIC MODIFIED MAIZE CULTIVARS IN BRAZIL

1. BRASIL

EVALUATION OF SOCIAL-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON THE DIFFUSION OF GENETIC MODIFIED MAIZE CULTIVARS IN BRAZIL

The commercial liberation of GM maize cultivars in Brazil began in 2007, starting the diffusion process of varieties resistant to pest insects in the 2008/09 crop in regions of large production. The rate of diffusion for the 2008/2009 crop was estimated at 19%, and the expectation for 2009/10 surpassed the 30%. In spite of the rapid diffusion process, there is lack of knowledge regarding potential and effective impacts of these cultivars to support policies and the implementation of biosafety measures. This project is pioneering the impact evaluation in transgenic maize crop studies in Brazil, once other recent works are based on ex-ante evaluations focused only on direct and indirect economic impacts using CGE models, like TERM or B-MARIA (Haddad, 1999; Pavão, 2008).  It has the secondary aim of testing the application of different methodologies toex-post and ex-ante impact evaluation of the GM technology.

The present project comprises basically two different, sequentially related research products. The first one is a result of the assessment of the determinants of maize cultivation – (particularly those related to pest control), in three different important selected regions in Brazil. The initial hypothesis is that there is a great variability in the impact of GM varieties by year and basically by region, which creates some concerns regarding the impact of GM seed, once farmers pay for the additional cost of GM maize

- the technology fee – in advance, without knowing if they will have a pest attack that year. The second product is a result of field research in three selected maize crop regions in Brazil to carry a first year ex-post analysis of GM impacts applying a partial equilibrium model and a risk assessment related to the adoption of GM cultivars (Esperancini, et alli, 2008). Finally, the third step dedicated to investigate the willingness to adopt systems using GM cultivars and to evaluate impacts on environment, using realoption approach.

Contacto: José Maria Ferreira Jardim da Silveira - UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS/ INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS/ NEA – BRASIL

E-mail: jmsilv@eco.unicamp.br

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